Tricks and tips for winning at the races |
The most important factor
The most important factor to keep in mind as far as the horse's true value is concerned, depends on HIS ABILITIES TO EARN MONEY! The more he earns, the more competent he is. That's a fact. However, I have not yet seen any gambler take into consideration this first class data. What about you? The same as everybody, I guess...
A way to ascertain the true value of a horse in relation to his competitors consists of
Taking to total amount he has earned
and divide it by the total number of races he has ran
We get this way an average per race that is very relevant. However, this global average may not reflect the true present value of a horse because, in regard to his first races, he may either have progressed (therefore the average is inferior to his current value) or, if he went down the slope, his average would be too high. In order to compensate for that
THE IDEAL IS TO TAKE AS REFERENCES,
ONLY THE RACES HE HAS BEEN IN FOR THE PAST YEAR,
UP TILL NOW. THIS IS WHAT SHALL REFLECT WITH
PRECISION HIS TRUE PRESENT VALUE.
Some exceptions have however to be made: when a horse, due to an accident, has been kept away from the tracks for several months. As, in this occurrence, one shall not be able to find enough races in the last year to have a correct average. In this case, more time has to be conceded. Ten races at least seems to be the minimum one should require.
Once in possession of this average (obtained, I remember by dividing the horse's total earnings by the number of races he has ran) we must pick the contender that stands out with an average well above that of his fellow competitors.
Example
8th RACE - DECEMBER 27 - AQUEDUC - 6 Furlongs |
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Total earnings 439.040 ÷ 304.843 ÷ 351.813 ÷ 276.052 ÷ 220.150 ÷ |
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Pert having only 7 races in the past year, one could have taken a longer period: the result would not have changed since he would have not but more than the 3rd and less than the 1st.
They ran the best they could for a purse of $200.000
FINISH LINE:
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WINNER: one minute and eleven seconds after starting, I'm In Time was home.
SECOND HORSE: Pert followed half a length behind.
Far far away (nine lengths) came the rest of the contenders and exactly in the order of their average earnings per race.
Third: Esplanade.
Fourth: Bestowed.
The money a horse has won, as we have seen, is a very important factor. Another one, also to keep into consideration is the money he tries to win. This can easily be seen on the horse's past performances.
The advantage of such trick is that it detects not only favorites, but also long shots.
Example:
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1st RACE - SAINT-CLOUD - LAGNY Stakes - $45.000 - 6 furlongs |
Horse's name |
In its last race, he was aiming at dollars |
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And before
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Only ONE competitor stands out, it's Schinghen who won and paid off $54.60 for a $2.00 bet!
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7st RACE - VINCENNES - AUGUSTA Stakes - Harness - $45.000 - 6 furlongs |
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In its ast race |
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Only four horses stand out at a first glance.
Jalopie was the winner and paid off 10.40 for a $2.00 bet.
Exception to the rule: when a horse just won his last races of smaller purses, he can behave very well in races of superior purses because we don't know yet where his true value stands.
if you are in doubt about several competitors, you can set them apart by analyzing the money they aimed at in their last race. As it reflects the horse's present condition. it shows how the horse is right now.
Example:
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6st RACE - Maisons-Laffitte - Montsouris Stakes - $45.000 |
Grazzi |
9 June |
40.000 |
Of course Cavanagh won and paid off a whopping 82.40 for a $2.00 bet!
